In war, torture is the rule and not the exception. The reports of abuse by american soldiers will be devastating to the occupation, though not really surprising, since war itself is so maximally abusive. The horrific pictures now shown around the world are a public relations catastrophy and are liable to undermine any hopes for the promised peaceful transition of power. The United States as an occupying power has a huge legitimacy problem to begin with. It just got much worse.
This ugly exposure unfortunately cannot entirely be seen as the exception. The adminstration frequently refers to the Iraqi resistance fighters as ‘thugs’ and ‘terrorists’. The ‘good vs evil’ story, along with the ongoing demonization and dehumanization of the enemy fighters is in fact consistent with the photos we are now seeing. How were the Iraqi people supposed to trust a foreign occupying power claiming to come to ‘liberate’ them? Most people around the world (including the citizens of the United States) are nationalistic and many would resist a similar foreign occupation. It may be a wrong choice but it is understandable. Unfortunately for the Bush administration, the burden of proof falls on the invading army, which must do everything possible to demonstrate respect to the local people. Consistently showing respect is beyond the capacity of overtaxed soldiers threatened by suicide car bombs and snipers. It is also beyond the budget of a policy which for political reasons must minimize American casualties - even in situations where it means disproportionately transfering the risk to Iraqi civilians. Historic resentment against Saddam Hussein will only allow the occupation so much time, and perhaps that time has just run out.
These photos of the humilation and abuse of prisoners are going to hit a raw nerve across the entire region. The ‘pre-emptive’ invasion was wrong to begin with, sold on a gullible and frightened American public with lies and exaggerations. But that is old news. The outstanding question now is what to do next. Is it better for the American forces to immediately withdrawl from Iraq - leaving an open the door for a terrible civil war and yet another unfriendly government, or to stay and try to establish some sort of stable power structure while simultaneously trying to contain the growing anti-US resentment and attacks? The very real possibility of this anti-American resentment boiling over now exists, which could lead to very large and aggressive anti-occupation demonstrations, where the distinction between insurgent and civilian would be difficult to determine. Surrounded 19 year old American soldiers with machine guns could be forced to make some exceptionally difficult judgement calls in tense high pressure situations. And sooner or later the inevitable panic stricken overreaction will occur, which will bring about even larger demonstrations. People in these large groups will begin to feel a sense of power and will demand influence. Attempting to control an angry population could lead to as much bloodshed as the feared civil war, and these attempts could fail as well, leaving afterwards a similar potential for civil war, though in that scenario after a huge death toll with many civilian causualties from the failed occupation.
We all like to believe in the happy ending. Despite the expensive price of admission, this war may not have one.